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How to Win Without War
We can disarm and contain Saddam Hussein. There are a number of
effective alternatives to war.
Supporting the current UN disarmament mission in Iraq is critical.
The U.S. initiative to win UN support for tougher weapons inspections
is succeeding, and has created an ongoing monitoring system that
increases the transparency of Iraq’s weapons complex. The
presence of UN weapons inspectors serves as a deterrent to Iraq’s
development or use of weapons of mass destruction. If Iraq does
not volunteer all the documentation required by the UN, coercive
pressure can be maintained through non-military means. We can improve
the current containment of Iraq’s military potential by strengthening
controls on Iraqi oil exports and tightening prohibitions on military
imports.
These goals can be achieved through the following means:
- Border monitoring in Jordan, Syria and Turkey
should be significantly strengthened through the deployment of
an adequately funded, well-equipped, and professionally trained
force of international inspectors.
- Advanced X-ray-scanning technology and an electronic
pass system would enable border monitors to inspect containers
and trucks quickly and non-intrusively. The model for such a system
is the “smart border” program now being established
the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, which enables inspections of 1 container
per minute.
- Sanctions assistance missions (SAMs), modeled
on operations developed for UN sanctions in Yugoslavia in 1993-95,
would enable the UN Security Council to establish an externally
based mechanism for enhancing the effectiveness of military sanctions.
While no monitoring program can eliminate smuggling completely,
the proposed system would make illegal arms shipments more difficult
and costly.
- Political assurances and economic incentives to neighboring
states should be offered in order to gain cooperation
for border controls and assistance missions. By building upon
political openings in the region, the U.S. could forge a concerted
diplomatic effort and build a cooperative border-monitoring system
that would prevent Iraq from developing weapons of mass destruction
and help prevent terrorism.
- Improving cargo monitoring at the port of Aqaba, Jordan,
where much of the seagoing cargo to Iraq is shipped, would decrease
the smuggling of weapons-related goods. Senator Chuck Schumer
(D-NY) recently unveiled a new pilot program to improve cargo
security in the Port of New York and New Jersey. This system,
which features large-scale x-ray equipment and chemical sensors,
could be applied to Aqaba and other locations.
- Creating a green list of approved oil companies to
purchase Iraqi oil would help to cut out disreputable
firms that provide kickbacks to Saddam Hussein.
- Requiring audited financial reports from oil purchasers
would verify that green list companies are not paying kickbacks
or fees to Baghdad.
- Controlling or shutting down the Syria-Iraq pipeline
would help stop the illegal shipment of oil outside the system
of UN financial controls. This is a gaping hole in the sanctions
net and a major source of unrestricted revenue for the Baghdad
government.
- Exposing and penalizing arms embargo violations
would help prevent illegal shipments to Iraq. Increased cooperation
between the U.S. and Russia could be help in this effort. The
UN Security Council should create a special investigative panel
that documents cases of smuggling and recommend actions that could
be taken to halt such violations.
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include the source: Win Without War.
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